I feel like every so often I see someone online say they’re convinced they changed the odds of the wheel to be more even. I had a free evening and nothing else to do so I decided to actually test it. My sample size is small, only fifty spins but I couldn’t stand to do much more than that without getting too bored. My conclusion based on this is no, they didn’t nerf the wheel. Green still has better odds by a lot. I’d say only put like 100 tokens on the wheel at a time.
by RareBird5
6 Comments
r/theydidthemath
the wheel is something where I trust that if the odds were changed we’d 100% know due to Stardew having enough of a speedrunning community that people will datamine for these things to optimize their gameplay
Yeah I was testing this last night and actually saw 3 losses on orange IN A ROW. Statistically possible but highly unlikely under what our understanding shows…but you have it at 7,8,9.
In real world gambling, even though roulette is the worst odds in the house, they added 0 then 00 and I’ve seen those super unlikely numbers hit sequentially also. If something is more random than not, there is a distinct chance of repetition like that. I think someone stated the pseudorandom number generator is broken if it’s not repeating occasionally.
Really gutted me because I thought I could “run out” the losses with a few cheap bets to flush out the oranges, worked one out of 3 times, and eventually went back to green for a big bet. That’s why strat guides encourage you to bet half your money, so you can soak up a loss and hopefully not get two orange in a row. But I had to go all in once or twice because the oranges were conspiring against my wallet.
I have had almost nothing but green runs before so I’m not sure if luck has any bearing on the game. All this blathering aside, yes, green is still the best bet about 75% of the time.
I lost all my coins 3x going all in on green. All in a row.
>I’d say only put like 100 tokens on the wheel at a time
I think I have read that what is mathematically best is to always bet half your remaining tokens. I usually do about a third to be a little more conservative
The wheel is dependent on luck.
Bad luck day and no buffs: green is barely better than orange.
Good luck day and maybe even some food buffs make a huge difference
So it can definitely feel like the odds were more even. But it’s not thanks to an update but to different level of luck
Why does nobody ever check the wiki?